Today's 3am GBP candle was 58 pips (H: 1.4088 / L: 1.4030). The 3am Grid predicted that today's straddle had a 73% probability of going the 110 pips for the day. Over the last 12 months this straddle trade had an 88% probability of success. I dutifully entered the straddle trades detailed on the chart on the left.
Trade Analysis
It tripped the BUY going north at 5:48am (1.4103). Minutes after 8am, it hit the LIMIT of 1.4140. I did not get out of the trade. My rationale was that at 8:15am the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change was scheduled to announce. There was good angle and separation on the hourly MACD and all of the RSIs were trending overbought. I figured I had a good chance of going well beyond 1.4140. I tightened up the stop to 1.4129 yielding me a minimum of 26 pips should it go against me, but yesterday's high of 1.4157 was within shouting distance so I hung on.
The numbers came out worse than expected, but instead of shooting north, the GBP just meandered. Ultimately the system stopped me out at the 26 pips. A good gain for the day to be sure. The currency would bounce between 1.4150 and 1.4100 for much of the day, finally breaking past yesterday's high a little after 4pm.
Bottom Line
The 3am Grid promised a good day of 37 pips, and it delivered. I took a reasonable risk to turn a good day into a great day, and today it played against me. I got a decent percentage of what the Grid promised, so it was still a decent trading day.
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