Even Good Odds Go Against You

Nothing is infallible. Yesterday in spite of a high probability trade, the currency reversed.

The 3am LC Grid Prediction

With an 85 pip opening candle the 3am LC (Long Candle) Grid predicted an 85% probability of going another 115 pips in one direction. By any standard, a powerful sign.


















Sadly, the GBPUSD tripped the SELL going south a couple of hours later then stalled. It reversed quickly to trip the BUY, but then stalled there as well. I got stopped out in a matter of minutes. When the details of Treasury Secretary Geithner's toxic-asset plan started to leak around 8:30am, the GBP zoomed south, retripping the SELL. This was a classic whipsaw.

Bottom Line
No system is perfect, mine included. This was the 3am Grid's first bad call all month. What made it surprising was the overwhelming probability it was going to be correct today. Oh well, I'm still up for the month.