Monday, March 2, 2009

Blown Trade











The title says it all today. I blew a perfectly good trade. The 3am Grid predicted a great result. I turned it into a so-so result.

The 3am GBP candle was 85 pips today. The 3am Grid predicts that if straddled, this currency would travel 200 pips inclusive of the opening candle. This means that the recommended straddle is a BUY placed at 1.4275 with a LIMIT at 1.4375, and a SELL placed at 1.4165 with a LIMIT at 1.4060. The 3am Grid had a demonstrated 71% probability of success with a whopping 38% winning pips over losing pips.


The SELL was tripped at 5:57am and it was off to the races. I noticed that the 240 and the Daily charts all showed very decent RSIs trending nicely downwards toward oversold.


Wham, bam the LIMIT of 1.4060 was hit at 7:32am! 105 pips! Yippie!!


Except, seeing that all the RSIs were trending in the same direction, downward, I had moved MY LIMIT to 1.4025. The GBP stalled at 1.4032 and retraced all the way back to 1.4138, a retracement of over 100 pips.


I kept moving my STOPS forward and got taken out at 1.4118 or a relative paltry 47 pips. As all you know by now, this currency continued to fall precipitously and ultimately hit 1.3956 at today's low. BUMMER.


The good news is that the 3am Grid was right. The bad news is that I mismanaged the trade.


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